“From Risk to Resilience: Methodology and Case Studies”
Igor Linkov, PhD
Risk and Decision Science Team, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
US Embassy Science Fellow, US Mission to OECD, Paris
Risk-based approaches have been used to assess threats and mitigate consequences associated with their impact. Risk assessment requires quantifying the risk of failure for each component of a system and associated uncertainties, with the goal of identifying each component’s contribution to the overall risk and ascertaining if one component poses substantially more risk than the others. These components become the basis of quantitative benchmarks for the system, and becomes the de facto standard for system improvements designed to buy down risk. Rapid technological evolution, combined with the unprecedented nature and extent of emerging threats defy us to enumerate all potential hazards, much less estimate reliable probabilities of occurrence and the magnitude of consequences. A comprehensive approach to protecting the nation’s critical infrastructure, economy, and well-being must be risk based—not risk exclusive—and must provide a way for decision makers to make their organizational systems resilient to a range of threats within specific cost and time restraints. In contrast to the definition of risk, resilience is focused on the ability to prepare and recover quickly from threats which may be known or unknown. Resilience is a property of the system itself and can be measured without identification and assessment of threats which act on or within a system. Managing for resilience requires ensuring a system’s ability to plan and prepare for a threat, and then absorb, recover, and adapt. Coupled with a systems view that decomposes components across physical, information, cognitive, and social environments in which the system exists, is the basis of an approach to quantifying resilience with decision analytical tools and network science approaches.
This presentation will review the history of risk assessment and management, discuss the emergence of resilience management, and the role of both constructs in managing emerging risks. Case studies in the areas of infrastructure, transportation, cybersecurity, organizational behavior, and disease epidemics management will be discussed. Specifically, summaries of the two recent workshops on Risk and Resilience (Aspen, 2015 and Azores 2016) will be presented and the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) Guidebook on Resilience released in Davos in August 2016 will be introduced.
Mardi 11 avril 2017
9h30 – 12h30
Entrée gratuite, conférence en anglais
Amphi de l’ENGREF, 19 av du Maine, 75015 Paris
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Biographie de l’intervenant
Dr. Linkov leads the Risk and Decision Science Team and Focus Area at the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, he is also Adjunct Professor of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. Dr. Linkov has managed multiple risk assessments and risk management projects in the areas of resilient infrastructure, cybersecurity, nanomaterials, environmental management, climate change, energy, and systems vulnerability. He is currently leading several projects implementing resilience management for cyber systems, critical infrastructure, energy and environment. He has published widely on environmental policy, environmental modeling, and risk analysis, including thirteen books and over 250 peer-reviewed papers and book chapters. Dr. Linkov has organized more than twenty national and international conferences and continuing education workshops, including workshops on Risk and Resilience in Berlin (2014), Aspen (2015) and Azores (2016) and 2015 World Congress on Risk in Singapore and 2019 World Congress on Risk in South Africa. He has served on many review and advisory panels for DOD, DHS, FDA, EPA, NSF, EU and other US and international agencies. The Governor of Massachusetts has appointed Dr. Linkov to serve as a Scientific Advisor to the Toxic Use Reduction Institute. He served as 2013 US Embassy Fellow in Berlin and at the US Mission at OECD in 2017. He is recipient of two Army medals for outstanding civilian service. He is the recipient of the 2014 Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Outstanding Practitioner Award, 2005 SRA Chauncey Starr Award for exceptional contribution to Risk Analysis, SRA Fellow award and was an elected SRA Councilor (2009-2013). He is elected fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). Dr. Linkov has a B.S. and M.Sc. in Physics and Mathematics (Polytechnic Institute) and a Ph.D. in Environmental, Occupational and Radiation Health (University of Pittsburgh). He completed his postdoctoral training in Risk Assessment at Harvard University.